In March, China’s soybean imports from the United States saw a significant increase, rising 12% compared to the same month last year. This spike can be attributed to shipments arranged in late 2024 by buyers wary of potential trade tensions between the U.S. and China. The General Administration of Customs reported that China imported 2.44 million metric tons from the U.S. during this month, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the country’s total soybean imports.
Despite the increase from the U.S., Brazil is poised to dominate the market in the near future as it enters its harvest season. In March, soybean imports from Brazil plummeted by 69% to 0.95 million tons, representing only 27% of total soybean imports for that month. The slowdown in Brazilian shipments was partially due to delays in the country’s harvest.
Overall, March saw a decline in total soybean arrivals to the lowest level for that month since 2008. Over the January-March quarter, U.S. soybean shipments to China surged 62% year-on-year, reaching 11.6 million tons. Conversely, imports from Brazil fell to 4.5 million tons, a 55% decrease from the previous year.
Consequently, Brazil’s market share for the first quarter stood at 26%, while the U.S. dominated with a 68% share, according to Reuters. Looking ahead, analysts predict that China’s soybean imports could reach a record 31.3 million tons between April and June. This surge is expected to be fueled by the influx of freshly harvested beans from Brazil’s abundant crop, indicating a potentially transformative period for the soybean market.