The USTR’s proposed fees are set to have varied impacts across different shipping sectors, according to Mr. Nikos Tagoulis, Senior Analyst at Intermodal. The dry bulk sector seems relatively insulated from these changes primarily due to two reasons: firstly, U.S. imports of dry bulk commodities constitute a minor fraction of global imports, and secondly, a significant segment of dry bulk carriers, vessels under 80,000 dwt, are exempt from these fees. Furthermore, U.S. dry bulk exports remain unaffected since vessels arriving empty to load are also exempt. In the tanker segment, the impact appears limited due to various exemptions that apply to specific vessel types, such as those under 55,000 dwt and chemical tankers, as well as the low share of U.S. involvement in crude and product imports.
Currently, less than 5% of tanker voyages to U.S. ports are expected to incur fees, thereby minimizing disruptions in crude and product tanker trade flows. Conversely, the containership sector is likely to experience more significant effects. Larger vessels exceeding 4,000 TEU will be subject to fees, potentially prompting a shift in demand towards smaller ships. Initial market reactions include a decline in bookings on China-U.S. routes and an increase in blank sailings, as operators reevaluate their strategies.
There may also be a rise in front loads as the implementation date nears, as well as a reshuffling of trade patterns with Chinese vessels opting to bypass U.S. trades. Lastly, all foreign-built vehicle carriers will be affected by fees, although operators might receive a three-year remission if they order vessels of equal or larger capacity from U.S. shipyards. Given that the U.S. was the world’s leading seaborne car importer in 2024, the impact on this sector could be considerable. However, challenges in the global PCC sector and a slowdown in seaborne vehicle trade may counteract the intended stimuli for U.S. shipbuilding.
In conclusion, the USTR’s forthcoming fees will impact various shipping sectors to differing extents. With a 180-day window for adjustments and a hearing scheduled for May 19, the final outcomes remain uncertain. Stakeholders need to closely observe these developments to fully understand the implications.