In recent weeks, the grain dry bulk shipping market from the U.S. to Mexico has seen significant changes, particularly in vessel utilization. Smaller vessel classes, such as Handysize (51.6%) and Supramax (39.4%), dominate this sector, collectively accounting for over 90% of total cargo shipments.
The preference for these smaller ships is likely influenced by Mexico’s constrained port infrastructure and the shorter shipping distances. In contrast, Panamax vessels account for only a negligible 0.1% of shipments.
Looking ahead to 2025, the trend of increased U.S. grain exports to Mexico is expected to continue. The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions may prompt American exporters to focus more on stable and reliable markets like Mexico, further strengthening the flow of agricultural goods.
This shift could increase freight volumes in the Handysize and Supramax segments, indicating a robust trade dynamic. However, a possible thaw in U.S.-China relations by 2025 could result in a resurgence of grain purchases from China, potentially diverting some export volumes from Latin America.
While this might bolster overall export demand, it could also shift vessel preferences back toward larger Panamax ships, which are better suited for longer ocean voyages. Overall, the growing exports to Mexico and dependency on smaller vessels showcase a tightly integrated regional trade.
Nevertheless, the geopolitical climate, especially regarding U.S.-China interactions, will significantly influence export patterns and fleet deployment strategies in the coming years. In the Capesize freight market, stability persists, with a slight decrease in ballast vessel counts.
The latest freight rates show minor declines in several routes, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market. Despite this, dry bulk port congestion in China has begun to ease, suggesting a potential recovery in shipping efficiency moving forward.